Monte Carlo simulation projecting how your portfolio holds up against market volatility. All figures in today's dollars.
Glides from your current allocation to a more conservative mix as you near retirement.
Expected real return for this mix: ~5.8% now, gliding to ~4.3% by retirement. Returns are simulated with market volatility, not a fixed rate, using long-run real assumptions of ~6.8% stocks, ~2.0% bonds, and ~0.3% cash (today's dollars).
Salary stays flat between stages. Contribution % is what you put in; employer match is on top.